社会经济学杂志

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Future Work/Technology 2050 Real-Time Delphi Study: Excerpt from the 2015-16 State of the Future Report

Jerome C Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu and Millennium Project Team

Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and artificial intelligence experts are warning the world about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence growing beyond human control as it becomes super intelligence, artificial general intelligence, or strong AI-the ability to autonomously rewrite its own software code based on feedback, implement the new software simultaneously around the world, modify its goals, and outperform human intellect. Nick Bottom’s expert survey in 2012/2013 found a 50-50 chance that “high-level machine intelligence” could be achieved by 2040-2050 and that super intelligence could be archived 30 years thereafter.